Model Zero · a predictive market model

Trained from scratch on Pump.fun launches.

What it is. A predictive market model. It learned from real Pump.fun launches: every trade, wallet and creator, and what happened next. Nothing else underneath.

What it is watching. Every new Pump.fun launch, as it happens. One in four of them, picked by a fixed rule and never by how good they look, gets a prediction when it is 1, 5 and 15 minutes old.

What the numbers mean. At each of those moments the model writes down its estimates and locks them: the chance the coin doubles, reaches 10× or 20× within 6 hours, or drops 70% within an hour, plus a runner score from 0 to 100: where its chance of 10× ranks among coins that were still trading at the same age. Six hours later, what really happened is written next to it. Predictions are never edited.

Analyze a token Forward-test results Ask Model Zero

Status

Frozen model

MZ-F1-v0.41

frozen 08 Oct 17:57 · never retrained or edited

Predictions locked

66 on this board

full ledger and results

Launches watched

122,710

355,238 snapshots already have a known result

Model versions

research & training

Live predictions — written before the result, never changed

40 newest launches with a prediction · refreshes every 30 s

Each row is one coin. The four percentages are the model's chance of each thing happening: doubling, 10×, 20× (within 6 hours) and dropping 70% (within 1 hour). Hover any heading for its exact meaning.

Coin · ageStatusAtRunner score2× chance10× chance20× chance−70% chanceWhat it saw at the snapshotAfter

$GARLIC2mLOW ACTIVITY1m—————4 buyers in 5 min · holders +2 · buy share 34%open

2× chance 1.4%10× 0.84%−70% 0.9%6 h window open

1m — · locked f92dac137f… at 19:20:11 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$CLAUDIA2mWAITING1m845.2%3.98%0.22%17.7%5 buyers in 5 min · holders +1 · buy share 49% · creator holdingopen

2× chance 5.2%10× 3.98%−70% 17.7%6 h window open

1m P(10×) 3.98% · locked 70df7d1bca… at 19:20:22 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$Scout2mWAITING1m40.7%0.14%0.11%0.2%6 buyers in 5 min · holders +3 · buy share 30% · snipers 0.2% of supplyopen

2× chance 0.7%10× 0.14%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m P(10×) 0.14% · locked 402ea198c5… at 19:19:40 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$NT53mNO TRADES1m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.5%10× 0.77%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — · locked d483de8672… at 19:19:09 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$fih3mNO TRADES1m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.5%10× 0.58%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — · locked 1fa160c11c… at 19:19:08 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$NT53mNO TRADES1m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.5%10× 0.58%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — · locked 2a6259f4ef… at 19:19:09 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$LOOT4mNO TRADES1m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.5%10× 0.77%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — · locked 831e58a413… at 19:18:08 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$MOIRAVA4mLOW ACTIVITY1m—————1 buyers in 5 min · holders +1 · buy share 0%open

2× chance 0.9%10× 1.87%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — · locked 71c8a97fba… at 19:17:57 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$KANTO4mNO TRADES1m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.4%10× 0.77%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — · locked f0579e9299… at 19:17:51 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$NT54mNO TRADES1m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.5%10× 0.65%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — · locked a4f454dcc8… at 19:17:33 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$NT55mNO TRADES1m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.5%10× 0.65%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — · locked e8f50db04c… at 19:17:26 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$NT55mNO TRADES1m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.5%10× 0.86%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — · locked 232a4c90f5… at 19:16:56 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$LVBANANA5mDEAD1m—————2 buyers in 5 min · holders +1 · buy share 49%open

2× chance 3.1%10× 2.89%−70% 3.4%6 h window open

1m P(10×) 2.89% · locked bb2264be0c… at 19:17:13 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$NT55mNO TRADES1m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.5%10× 0.86%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — · locked 3fbced7851… at 19:16:51 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$CLEO6mLOW ACTIVITY5m—————1 buyers in 5 min · holders +1 · buy share 17%open

2× chance 0.3%10× 0.14%−70% 0.1%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked 08d45d0e59… at 19:20:26 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$FREUA6mLOW ACTIVITY5m—————0 buyers in 5 min · holders +0 · buy share 0%open

2× chance 1.7%10× 2.03%−70% 0.1%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked 4c38a0783f… at 19:20:20 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$TCAST6mLOW ACTIVITY5m—————0 buyers in 5 min · holders +0 · buy share 0%open

2× chance 0.4%10× 0.15%−70% 0.1%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked 3fab97ef6c… at 19:20:31 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$TRY6mLOW ACTIVITY5m—————0 buyers in 5 min · holders +0 · buy share 0%open

2× chance 1.1%10× 0.91%−70% 0.1%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked 85406a628c… at 19:20:13 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$GHOTC6mTRACKING5m4633.3%0.97%0.49%0.7%244 buyers in 5 min · holders +119 · buy share 55% · bundled 1.6%open

2× chance 33.3%10× 0.97%−70% 0.7%6 h window open

1m P(10×) 2.03% → 5m P(10×) 0.97% · locked c46331cda5… at 19:20:05 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$BACK7mTRACKING5m271.0%0.31%0.14%0.3%213 buyers in 5 min · holders +1 · buy share 44% · snipers 23.1% of supplyopen

2× chance 1.0%10× 0.31%−70% 0.3%6 h window open

1m P(10×) 0.38% → 5m P(10×) 0.31% · locked bab056a0ca… at 19:19:26 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$NT57mNO TRADES5m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.5%10× 0.86%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked 6aaacb301a… at 19:19:19 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$NT57mNO TRADES5m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.4%10× 0.86%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked cb70aac78d… at 19:18:56 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$Utilitest7mDEAD5m—————2 buyers in 5 min · holders +1 · buy share 37%open

2× chance 0.6%10× 0.15%−70% 1.6%6 h window open

1m P(10×) 0.21% → 5m P(10×) 0.15% · locked 1aee4c13cd… at 19:18:58 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$ARTEMI8mDEAD5m—————20 buyers in 5 min · holders +0 · buy share 41%open

2× chance 0.7%10× 0.29%−70% 0.1%6 h window open

1m P(10×) 0.29% → 5m P(10×) 0.29% · locked 4873841c45… at 19:18:25 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$BACK8mTRACKING5m932.8%5.66%0.29%0.4%104 buyers in 5 min · holders +1 · buy share 43% · snipers 33.9% of supplyopen

2× chance 2.8%10× 5.66%−70% 0.4%6 h window open

1m P(10×) 6.51% → 5m P(10×) 5.66% · locked 35f6e78c57… at 19:18:20 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$Excuses 8mLOW ACTIVITY5m—————0 buyers in 5 min · holders +0 · buy share 0%open

2× chance 1.2%10× 0.91%−70% 0.1%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked 740ef4410b… at 19:17:57 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$NIGHTSHIFT9mLOW ACTIVITY5m—————1 buyers in 5 min · holders +0 · buy share 19%open

2× chance 1.1%10× 0.91%−70% 0.1%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked b284bed577… at 19:16:49 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$Visitors9mNO TRADES5m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.7%10× 0.65%−70% 0.1%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked c2f2c72171… at 19:16:34 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$KANTO9mNO TRADES5m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.4%10× 0.65%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked 46ebe2e491… at 19:16:33 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$KANTO9mNO TRADES5m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.4%10× 0.65%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked 1b071a0c00… at 19:16:32 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$KANTO9mNO TRADES5m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.2%10× 0.47%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked 60d61c8dcc… at 19:16:32 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$PAYDEX10mLOW ACTIVITY5m—————2 buyers in 5 min · holders +1 · buy share 33%open

2× chance 0.3%10× 0.13%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked 85384f84e8… at 19:15:36 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$Visitors11mNO TRADES5m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 65.4%10× 86.37%−70% 1.1%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked 17adf62e25… at 19:15:37 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$KANTO11mNO TRADES5m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.4%10× 0.86%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked 0afe2cdc48… at 19:15:19 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$KANTO11mLOW ACTIVITY5m—————0 buyers in 5 min · holders +0 · buy share 0%open

2× chance 0.3%10× 0.13%−70% 0.1%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked d279de5e39… at 19:14:31 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$POET12mNO TRADES5m—————no trades at the snapshotopen

2× chance 1.4%10× 0.65%−70% 0.2%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked 401e149808… at 19:14:23 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$BEANS13mTRACKING5m10.4%0.13%0.11%0.1%6 buyers in 5 min · holders +2 · buy share 40% · bundled 4.8%open

2× chance 0.4%10× 0.13%−70% 0.1%6 h window open

1m — → 5m P(10×) 0.13% · locked b54ee1489c… at 19:13:23 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$inuc13mLOW ACTIVITY5m—————1 buyers in 5 min · holders +0 · buy share 25%open

2× chance 1.2%10× 2.09%−70% 0.1%6 h window open

1m — → 5m — · locked 823106700c… at 19:13:00 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$Andrew cat13mDEAD5m—————2 buyers in 5 min · holders +0 · buy share 33%open

2× chance 3.4%10× 2.45%−70% 1.8%6 h window open

1m P(10×) 2.83% → 5m P(10×) 2.45% · locked 1adc0b1fc4… at 19:13:13 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

$Uni13mTRACKING5m251.4%0.28%0.12%2.8%57 buyers in 5 min · holders +2 · buy share 17% · snipers 5.2% of supplyopen

2× chance 1.4%10× 0.28%−70% 2.8%6 h window open

1m P(10×) 0.33% → 5m P(10×) 0.28% · locked 87f49702cd… at 19:12:39 UTC · model MZ-F1-v0.41

Everything left of "After" is what Model Zero wrote down at the snapshot. "After" is what really happened, filled in once the 6 hours are over. The two are never mixed.

Runner score: where the model's chance of 10× ranks among coins that were still trading at the same age, from 0 to 100. 90 means it looked stronger than 9 in 10 of them. It is a rank, not a chance: most coins with a high score still do not run. The ledger also keeps the older rank against the whole test set.

▸Status legend

NO TRADES

Nobody had traded the coin yet when the snapshot was taken. The prediction is recorded but never scored; the row is dimmed.

LOW ACTIVITY

Fewer than 10 trades, or nothing traded in the five minutes before the snapshot. Recorded, never scored; the row is dimmed.

WAITING

The coin was active at the snapshot and its 6-hour window is still running.

TRACKING

Active at the snapshot and still trading at the last check.

RUNNER

Reached 3× its reference price or kept strong attention, so it is being followed closely.

OUTCOME COMPLETE

The 6 hours are over and the real result has been written next to the prediction.

DEAD

Nothing happened after the snapshot: no trades, no buyers.

Dimmed rows had no trades, or almost none, when the snapshot was taken: recorded so nothing is hidden, never scored.

▸Data flowing into Model Zero right now

Trades & fees on-chain

…

Every buy and sell of a tracked coin, wallet by wallet, plus every fee and Jito tip paid, read from Solana itself. Bundles, snipers, dev sells and buyer track records come from these.

Live · hover or tap any boxloading…

reading the ledger

Trained from scratch on Pump.fun launches.

What it is. A predictive market model. It learned from real Pump.fun launches: every trade, wallet and creator, and what happened next. Nothing else underneath.

What it is watching. Every new Pump.fun launch, as it happens. One in four of them, picked by a fixed rule and never by how good they look, gets a prediction when it is 1, 5 and 15 minutes old.