Token life cycle

$TCAST · Tongue Cast

Launched 14 Oct 19:14 on stonkfun. Tracking level: minimal — 5 successful transactions, none after the first minute (launch bundle only). Prediction data (what the frozen model knew) and outcome data (what happened) are kept in separate columns. Analyze now →

Timeline

each row is the 5-minute bucket containing the mark (the 1m row shows minutes 0–5), from the filtered trade history; reviews from adaptive tracking

markprice × refvolume 5mtrades 5mbuy sharebuyerscreator sellstop-10 %statefrozen P(2×) / P(−70%)

1m1.00×$167553%31—low activity · not evaluated

5m1.00× (no trades)$05 tx—00—DEADlow activity · not evaluated

15m1.00× (no trades)$05 tx—00—DEADlow activity · not evaluated

30m1.00× (no trades)$05 tx—00—DEAD

1h1.00× (no trades)$05 tx—00—DEAD

3hnot yetDEAD

6hnot yetDEAD

12hnot yetDEAD

1dnot yetDEAD

2dnot yetDEAD

3dnot yetDEAD

Prediction data — locked before the outcome

1m · 19:15:34 UTC

runner 46 (test-set 95th) · P(2×) 2.4% · P(10×) 1.03% · P(20×) 0.23% · P(−70%) 0.4%

not active at the snapshot (not evaluated) · Written into a tamper-proof ledger before the result was known · 1761984a155e…

5m · 19:19:34 UTC

runner 10 (test-set 41st) · P(2×) 0.4% · P(10×) 0.15% · P(20×) 0.12% · P(−70%) 0.1%

not active at the snapshot (not evaluated) · Written into a tamper-proof ledger before the result was known · 3fab97ef6c42…

15m · 19:29:34 UTC

runner 11 (test-set 41st) · P(2×) 0.4% · P(10×) 0.15% · P(20×) 0.12% · P(−70%) 0.1%

not active at the snapshot (not evaluated) · Written into a tamper-proof ledger before the result was known · 5d37baf3686a…

Outcome data — what happened afterwards

6-hour window not complete yet.

Largest single sells

$49 at 0 min (DsGJkP…) · $30 at 0 min (8RwthN…)

▸Tracking transitions

19:18

new → minimal

5 successful transactions, none after the first minute (launch bundle only)