Token life cycle

$CUP · Captain Underpants

Launched 14 Oct 18:20 on pump-fun. Tracking level: active — unchanged. Prediction data (what the frozen model knew) and outcome data (what happened) are kept in separate columns. Analyze now →

Timeline

each row is the 5-minute bucket containing the mark (the 1m row shows minutes 0–5), from the filtered trade history; reviews from adaptive tracking

markprice × refvolume 5mtrades 5mbuy sharebuyerscreator sellstop-10 %statefrozen P(2×) / P(−70%)

1m1.00×$7,7158439%381—21.5% / 10.8%

5m1.00×$3720%00—LAUNCH2.6% / 9.7%

15m0.97×$2110%00—LAUNCHlow activity · not evaluated

30m1.00× (review)$01 tx—00—LAUNCH

1h0.93× (review)$01 tx—00—LAUNCH

3hnot yetLAUNCH

6hnot yetLAUNCH

12hnot yetLAUNCH

1dnot yetLAUNCH

2dnot yetLAUNCH

3dnot yetLAUNCH

Prediction data — locked before the outcome

1m · 18:21:44 UTC

runner 52 (test-set 96th) · P(2×) 21.5% · P(10×) 1.28% · P(20×) 0.45% · P(−70%) 10.8%

active at the snapshot · Written into a tamper-proof ledger before the result was known · a8ec01cf4987…

5m · 18:25:44 UTC

runner 31 (test-set 88th) · P(2×) 2.6% · P(10×) 0.41% · P(20×) 0.19% · P(−70%) 9.7%

active at the snapshot · Written into a tamper-proof ledger before the result was known · c4e7ef4dcc5c…

15m · 18:35:44 UTC

runner 17 (test-set 53rd) · P(2×) 0.4% · P(10×) 0.18% · P(20×) 0.19% · P(−70%) 1.0%

not active at the snapshot (not evaluated) · Written into a tamper-proof ledger before the result was known · 391f5ebe270b…

Outcome data — what happened afterwards

6-hour window not complete yet.

Largest single sells

$2,202 at 1 min (AJ5BEA…) · $318 at 1 min (sbzV9o…) · $249 at 1 min (GoRW4L…) · $196 at 1 min (6EGKmR…) · $175 at 1 min (6o6xhX…)

▸Tracking transitions

18:24

new → active

70 successful transactions in the first 4 minutes, 32 after the first minute